Although the recent ÀÏ˾»úÎçÒ¹¸£Àû GLP Index predicts a subdued growth of +2% for the legal profession as a whole, unfortunately, some practice areas will see a downward trend in 2024. The Index team looked at various data points and gathered insights to see what we can expect in these practice areas.
This article will share those insights and discuss the trends influencing the decline in demand for some practice areas.
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To determine whether the demand for criminal law expertise will grow or decline in 2024, the Index team looked at criminal justice statistics, Crown Court trials, Civil Court figures and many other data points. One of the key data sources came from the Ministry of Justice's Criminal Justice Statistics Quarterly.
From these sources, the team found the number of defendants proceeded against, offenders convicted, and offenders sentenced has decreased over time. However, the latest data show an increase in 2022 with 1.19m defendants proceeded against.
This figure is similar to 2020 (958k) and 2021(1.07m). However, the statistics for 2018 and 2019 had roughly 200,000 more defendants proceeded against than in recent years.
Data for offenders convicted and sentenced show a similar trend, with just over a million offenders convicted and sentenced across England and Wales in 2022.
What does this mean for 2024?
The data reveal that demand for criminal law has steadily decreased over the years. In 2018 and 2019, it fell by -6% and -2%, respectively; in 2020, during the height of the pandemic, it dropped sharply by -26%.
2021 saw some growth, with the demand increasing by +8% compared to 2020. Unfortunately, this dipped again in 2022 by -2% and -4% in 2023.
Based on all data points, the GLP Index predicts a decline in demand for criminal expertise in 2024 by -3%.
View corporate criminal law practice notes, precedents and news articles
The Index team used the Ministry of Justice's Employment Tribunal statistics as the key data set. However, measuring annual statistics for employment law is currently tricky since the figures for 2021-2022 were not published due to the migration to the new tribunal case management system.
Employment law was the focus of many during the pandemic, with remote working, redundancies, and the government's furlough scheme causing many organisations to seek employment law advice.
Despite this, employment law workloads decreased significantly during 2020 and 2021. -4% and -29%, respectively. The index attributes this decline to a backlog in employment tribunal claims.
As employment tribunal cases received and disposed of increased again, 2022 saw growth in the practice area of +6% and +3% in 2023.
What can we expect in 2024?
The latest annual figures for 2022/23 show 84,396 claims were accepted – significantly lower than in previous years. However, the total number of disposals sits at 71,316 – 71% higher than 2020/21.
So, despite the rebounds in 2022 and 2023, the index predicts a -2% decline in demand for employment law in 2024.
View employment law practice notes, precedents and news articles
After three years of exceptional growth, demand for competition law is predicted to drop by -5% compared to 2023. This does not mean the demand is disappearing; there is still a considerable demand for competition law expertise.
The index relied on data from the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) to look at trends and make predictions for 2024.
What caused previous spikes in demand?
The spikes in demand could be linked to several recent events—notably, the UK's exit from the EU. Brexit had a significant impact on legislation and competition law regulations. Demand for competition law increased after the June 2016 referendum, and again after the original EU exit date (29 March 2019), and around the same time as the extended date (31 October 2019). Demand also increased as new legislative changes were introduced after the UK finally left the EU at the end of January 2020.
Anti-trust enforcement has also come to the fore in recent years as policymakers, academics, and the media expressed concerns that anti-competitive conduct had increased.
Despite these spikes, there has been a consistent growth in demand for competition lawyers. 2021 saw a whopping +83% increase in demand compared to 2020. This growth continued into 2022 (+17%) and 2023 (+32%).
Why a decline in 2024?
The CMA is being given more and more authority, especially when considering recent reforms to the Digital Markets, Competition and Consumer Bill. So far this year, over half of the new cases taken up by the CMA were related to mergers – a total of 23 new cases altogether. This is a decline from 2022, where 42 of 61 cases were merger related.
So, overall, although the demand is still high, based on several data points, the index predicts a decline in demand of -5% compared to 2023.
View competition law practice notes, precedents and news articles
A series of political, legislative, economic, and pandemic-related events have seen demand for risk and compliance legal expertise yo-yoing quite noticeably. One of the most significant risks in the R&C space is cyber security. Although attacks are often easily avoidable, more than a third of businesses still face systems breaches.
Allison Wooddisse, the head of In-house Compliance and Practice Management at ÀÏ˾»úÎçÒ¹¸£Àû, phishing remains the leading cause of cybersecurity breaches.
Why the yo-yoing?
Looking back, the demand for risk and compliance expertise increased by a whopping 50% in 2017 compared to other years. Undoubtedly, the EU's General Data Protection Regulations, which came into effect in May 2018, played a part in this surge. It required a complete overhaul of most businesses' marketing, sales, product, and customer service processes.
Yet, in 2018, the demand dropped by -29%.
COVID-19 remote working and other workplace disruptions posed many security risks, leading to a surge in demand in 2020 of +37% compared to previous years.
In 2021, this surge was followed by a noticeable fall, with demand dropping by -42%. Then, in 2022, we saw a smaller spike in demand of +6% - no doubt caused by the sanctions brought about by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Growth continued in 2023, with demand rising by +7% compared to 2022. Yet, the post-Brexit, post-recession, post-pandemic market hints at overall stability.
What can we expect for 2024?
Many of the latest figures the Index team used, such as data from the Information Commissioner's Office on enforcement notices and penalties, were relatively similar to previous years.
Based on that and other data, the index predicts that growth will remain roughly the same as in 2023, dropping by a marginal -1%.
View risk and compliance law practice notes, precedents and news articles
For a full report on which areas of the law will increase, decline, or remain the same, see the LexisNeixs GLP Index report here.
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